Mortgage Rates Fall as Demand Stabilizes and Total Inventory Declines

Rates and demand

HousingWire reported on Nov. 7 that mortgage rates had declined over the prior three weeks, while its weekly pending-sales data indicated that demand had stabilized. The outlet stressed that stabilization does not amount to growth, following a noticeable slowdown when rates approached 7.60%.

HousingWire put the mortgage rate at 7.17%. It said purchase applications, a measure it views as looking 30 to 90 days ahead, recorded a small week-to-week decline but also showed signs of stabilization.

Spreads widened

Mortgage spreads rose to 2.27% last week from 2.23% a week earlier, according to HousingWire. The outlet said spreads remained near multiyear lows, while noting a historical range of 1.60% to 1.80%.

HousingWire estimated that the mortgage rate would be 6.72%, rather than 7.17%, if spreads were at their best levels of 2026. At the worst spread levels of 2023, it estimated a rate of 8.11%.

The publication said the 10-year yield had reversed from a 5.35% high toward 4.82%. It added that it would not become more positive on mortgage rates unless the yield moved below 4.70% with follow-through bond buying.

Inventory fell in the latest week

Total inventory fell from 914,833 on Oct. 30 to 902,740 on Nov. 6. In the comparable period a year earlier, inventory declined from 856,751 to 842,257.

Despite the latest weekly decrease, HousingWire said inventory growth was running 7.18%. The outlet raised the question of whether recent shifts in demand and inventory reflect seasonality or a change in the market following lower rates; it did not resolve that question.

HousingWire said new listings were in their typical seasonal decline. It described 2026 as the healthiest year for new listings since 2022, with more than 80,000 new listings per week on several occasions, and said higher rates had not prompted a meaningful seller pullback.

Pricing and upcoming data

HousingWire said the share of homes with price cuts had been below last year's level until rates moved above 6.64% and then 7%. It said the year-over-year price-cut percentage subsequently rose by one percentage point.

The outlet flagged CPI and PPI releases, existing-home-sales data and Federal Reserve speeches for the week ahead. It also said it would watch bond-market reactions to geopolitical developments, trade tensions and AI-stock trading.